Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-44: EL NIÑO IS HERE
3Q kicked off on strong footing: the Central Bank estimated vigorous growth, power demand surged, credit remained ample, interest rates trended downward, robust imports signaled dynamic household consumption, sales ran high, private imports and exports expanded, external debt yielded net disbursements, and the fiscal deficit narrowed. Yet three horsemen of the apocalypse are approaching at full gallop: slumping crude exports coupled with soaring imported diesel prices; a steep drop in hydroelectric generation that forced power rationing on the industrial sector; and, in late October, a "Godzilla" El Niño announcing its arrival with a barrage of severe storms. How will this confluence of headwinds hit the broader economy? How long will the blackouts last? Will expensive diesel persist into next year? What toll will El Niño take? In both 1982–83 and 1997–98, the phenomenon triggered severe financial and fiscal crises; is history at risk of repeating itself? In this issue, we update our review of economic performance based on the indicators available at the end of October. WA #39 contains the review based on the indicators available at the end of September.
WA-2026-43: TOP 20 WORLDWIDE IN PORT EFFICIENCY
Ecuador has demonstrated that it can compete with the world's best ports. Posorja ranked #20 worldwide in operational efficiency for container ports, according to the World Bank and S&P Global's CPPI 2025 ranking. This result demonstrates the potential of private investment to transform port infrastructure. Ports are going through a period of expansion: in 2025, cargo throughput increased 14.7%, and investments are modernizing docks, expanding capacity, and strengthening competition. Port development is one of Ecuador's most notable private investment stories. The challenge now, however, is to ensure that efficiency does not end at the dock, but extends to roads, inspections, security, and logistics services. The next major port transformation will not depend solely on building more infrastructure, but on ensuring that the entire foreign trade chain works better. Which are Ecuador's most competitive ports, and what explains their differences? Who leads in cargo and container throughput? How much has been invested, and what projects are coming? Do regulations encourage competition and investment? How do insecurity, international wars, road congestion, and power disconnections affect business costs? What is the ranking of shipping agencies?
WA-2026-42: PREPARED FOR THE STORM
Ecuador is preparing to face a potentially extraordinary El Niño phenomenon, while power restrictions are already affecting production. The consequences could extend to business and household income and undermine their ability to meet financial obligations. How prepared is banking to face this threat? The system enters this period with improved delinquency, capital and earnings indicators, but with lower immediate liquidity reserves. Banking profits could exceed $1B for the first time, although ROE remains below that regional average. Meanwhile, the prolonged decline in interest rates appears to be coming to an end. New international financial conditions and regulatory changes pose additional challenges to credit expansion. Where are the greatest El Niño risks concentrated? Could a new electricity crisis lead to a deterioration in banks’ loan portfolios? Are banking profits extraordinary? Will interest rates rise again? What do the recent regulatory reforms mean for financial system stability and access to credit?
WA-2026-41: PHARMA: CHANGING THE SYSTEM
Medicine shortages have once again become one of the main problems facing the public healthcare system. In August, the Ministry of Public Health reported an average supply rate of 55%; by late September, availability was close to 60%. The paradox is that this is happening while Ecuador's pharmaceutical market is growing strongly. We estimate that the total market grew 8.1% yoy in 2026, but growth is concentrated in the private market, at 9.8%, while the public market contracted by -6.3%. The bottleneck lies mainly in how the State identifies its needs, purchases medicines, manages inventories, and distributes them to patients. The government is attempting to change this structure. It created a public company to centralize supply and logistics, reformed procurement rules, is negotiating a purchase from India, will bring private operators into distribution, and has just contracted a technology platform to interconnect hospitals. Can a new public company untangle the procurement maze without reducing competition and transparency? Why did the announced immediate purchase from India take more than four months? Can Dedalus transform hospital management? What role can private laboratories and logistics operators play?
WA-2026-40: THE MOST EXPENSIVE INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY IN THE REGION
Ecuador is once again facing a significant power risk. The Government responded by temporarily reducing demand from large and medium-sized consumers. Since October, large industrial AV1 and AV2 consumers have also faced a sharp tariff increase, with energy charges of up to 35¢/kWh and increases of up to 240%. For businesses, the consequence is concrete: electricity is no longer an input whose availability can be taken for granted and has become a strategic variable for investment, costs and operational continuity. Exec. Ord. 515, issued on September 29, significantly expands businesses’ power options. It regulates Autonomous Energy Districts, facilitates private projects of up to 100 MW, expands self-supply mechanisms and allows greater private participation in grids, storage and ancillary services. For businesses, this means more tools to reduce dependence on public supply. What really changes for a business? Is it advisable to self-generate, contract private power or join an Autonomous Energy District? When is it worthwhile to invest in own grids? And what can be implemented now and what remains pending? This analysis reviews these new alternatives and their implications for costs, investment and operational continuity.
WA-2026-39: INDUSTRIES UNDER ENERGY RATIONING
Industries are already experiencing power supply restrictions that will intensify on December 15; and for the electricity they can access, tariffs will rise on Thursday. Coastal sea surface temperatures are currently at their highest level since records began. How will the economy be impacted during the final quarter and into 2027? The wars in Ukraine and Iran are causing fuel shortages—particularly of diesel—which Ecuador is currently purchasing at more than double the price of the crude oil it exports. How will this affect the oil trade balance? Why did country risk rise in September? In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 2.1%, but the Central Bank, based on a leading indicator, estimates sharp growth in July. What explains this? Which are the most dynamic sectors? What factors underpin the authorities' optimism regarding economic performance in the second half of the year? In this issue we update our review of the performance of the economy based on the indicators available at the end of September. WA#36 contains the review with the indicators available at the end of August.