Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2025-44: BEST YEAR EVER?
President Noboa took to the X platform to demand that private banks advance the payment of the thirteenth-month salary, asserting that they had experienced their best year in history. In reality, sales are growing across all sectors of the economy (with the exception of oil), not just banking. As of September, domestic sales grew by 10% y-o-y on average. Although ROE rose to 12.6% in September, it is still lower than 2023 or pre-pandemic levels. The new Reform Law to the Monetary and Financial Code, approved in October 2025 following the declaration of unconstitutionality of the Public Integrity Law, redefines the governance of the Ecuadoran financial system. What does it imply for the financial system? Why do interest rates continue to drop across the board? How has the financial system's liquidity evolved? Will Panama's exclusion from the list of tax havens mark a new cycle of financial integration and reduction of funding costs for the country? How do the banks rate for their efficiency, capitalization, earnings, and liquidity according to the CAMEL analysis?
WA-2025-43: IMF ENDORSES THE PROGRAM
The IMF considers that the government is doing a great job meeting its self-imposed fiscal targets, and a forthcoming $600M disbursement has been announced. Still, the deficit remains higher than last year’s, and the indicators suggest that the rebound from the 2024 GDP contraction has ended, marking the start of a phase of minimal growth. What is the pace of sales growth, and which sectors are performing best? How are private exports doing, and what is their short-term outlook? Are interest rates rising or falling? What can be expected from oil prices? How are budget arrears to suppliers evolving? In this issue, we update our review of the economy’s performance based on indicators available as of mid-October and the national accounts for the second quarter. WA#40 contains the review based on indicators available at the end of September.
WA-2025-42: THE ARMED CONFLICT IS NOW INTERNATIONAL
In January 2024, President Noboa declared an Internal Armed Conflict to combat drug trafficking gangs. Now Donald Trump is doing the same. The conflict is taking on an international dimension. A month ago, it was announced that the fight would be intensified. Erik Prince was hired. When did the Colombian drug traffickers enter Ecuador? What is the degree of penetration of the Mexican cartels, and why are they fighting each other? What is the national counterpart of each? What is Noboa seeking with the new laws, and why does the Constitutional Court strike them down? What is the government’s security strategy? What do international experts say about the policy of armed repression against drug traffickers? Is a quick solution possible?
WA-2025-41: TRADE UNBOUNDED
In Ecuador’s negotiations with the U.S. to prevent the closure of the U.S. market to our products, national authorities faced an obstacle from Washington: a long list of objections to Ecuador’s trade policy, deemed barriers to trade. In 2016, Ecuador shifted course by abandoning its import substitution policy, albeit timidly and incompletely. Since then, trade liberalization has consolidated into a true State policy: the country has signed agreements with the European Union, China, and South Korea, with several more under negotiation. The time has come to accelerate the process and complete liberalization. The question is clear: Is Ecuador ready to dismantle the remnants of the old policy and eliminate the barriers that still hinder trade and investment? Peru is an example to follow. What lessons can be drawn from the Peruvian experience? Here we offer a comparison between the trade policies of both countries.
WA-2025-40: CONAIE STRIKE WEAKENS RECOVERY
The Conaie strike endangers the ongoing economic recovery. Meanwhile, the financial market reacts positively to the diesel price hike, and country risk falls. The country begins 4Q in turmoil, to which must be added the political agitation of the electoral campaign for the November referendum and plebiscite. How much is the oil sector recovering from the July output collapse? How far has the oil price fallen? How are private exports doing? Imports? Is there a trade surplus or deficit? How are sales evolving? Is employment increasing? Is bank credit growing? Are the prices in neighboring countries rising or falling compared to those in Ecuador? In this issue, we update our review of the economy’s performance based on the indicators available as of late September. WA#36 contains the review with the indicators available at the beginning of the month.
WA-2025-39: MODEST GROWTH PROSPECTS
After the rebound to3.8% in 2025, the economy would slow down to 1.8% in 2026 and then stabilize at an average of 2% for the rest of the decade, according to the Central Bank’s projections. Household consumption is the factor that will drive the economy, and its pace of expansion will slow from 2026 onward. In 2026, the economy would reach $139B and GDP per capita $7,622. How does the BCE gauge investment in general and public investment in particular? Will the boom in private exports continue? Will imports remain strong? What does it foresee for the erratic oil sector? For Trade? Manufacturing? Agriculture? Aquaculture? Financial services? In this issue we review GDP forecasts for 2025-26. The last time we carried out this exercise was for 2024-2025 in WA2024#39. The most recent number dedicated to GDP performance is WA#31 with Q1 2025 data.