Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-09: TARIFF POKER
President Noboa plays tariff poker with President Petro, and at the same time is subject to President Trump’s tariff roulette. There is great uncertainty as to how tariffs with these countries will change this year. This induces a conservative forecast of non-oil export growth of 6% to 7% in 2026. Oil exports are expected to post a slight decline in volume, and their price to be lower than in 2025, although the Iran war has caused a temporary price increase. What was the performance of each of our export products in 2025? How will the tariff skirmish with Colombia be resolved, and how does it impact our exports? How does President Trump’s tariff surcharge affect each of our exports to the U.S. market? Which gain and which lose relative to the competition? What should be expected from the agreement about to be signed? In this issue we review 2025 exports. We did the same for 2024 exports in WA 2025#08. Our previous issue that dealt with foreign trade was WA 2025#48, which covered Q3 data. We will address imports in detail in a subsequent issue.
WA-2026-08: ERRATIC TARIFFS
The Supreme Court of the United States forces President Donald Trump to alter his tariff policy. The tariff agreement negotiated by Quito and Washington is on hold. The dispute with Colombia continues. Ecuadoran foreign trade operates in an environment of uncertainty. Imports are rising, interest rates are falling, and international reserves reach a record level. But public spending in January increases sharply, which bodes poorly for the plan to reduce the fiscal deficit. How did domestic sales perform in the last quarter of the year? Which industries showed the best performance? Which client types received the most bank credit in January? What are the prospects for oil prices? What explains the rebound in inflation? How do prices in neighboring countries vary relative to ours? In this issue we update our review of economic performance based on the indicators available at the end of February. WA 2026#04 contains the review with the indicators available in mid-January.
WA-2026-07: STRONG CREDIT FOR 2026
Bank credit recovered in 2025 amid increased demand, while banks eased their requirements to access loans. Behind this is the improved performance of the economy, estimated to have rebounded 3.8%. Bank profitability increased. Interest rates declined. How has each bank performed? Banks expect to grant more credit to businesses (but not for consumption), in addition to the long-term credit line secured by Banco del Pacífico and the revitalization of heavily subsidized social housing credit. However, two recent resolutions by the monetary authorities point to the public sector competing with the private sector for bank credit. What is expected for Q1: why is the reserve requirement rising? Will rates continue to decline? Will banks keep expanding credit? To which sectors? Is the NPL portfolio growing or holding steady? What regulatory changes does the International Monetary Fund suggest?
WA-2026-06: MINING POLICY OVERHAUL
The president sent the Assembly two bills of urgent economic nature, one on energy and another on revenues transferred to subnational governments. And they are connected. What is sought with these laws? In the last sixty days the president has introduced tactical changes to mining regulations, and with the bill he seeks strategic changes. How are these two instruments related, and what is the objective? In the last year, two Chinese companies have acquired two of the largest metallic deposits in Ecuador. Why are Chinese companies the ones buying the projects, and not Canadian or Australian firms? In this issue, we analyze the current situation and the outlook for metallic mining in Ecuador. The last time we examined the topic in depth was WA 2025#25.
WA-2026-05: DEBT CONTINUES TO FALL
On January 16, the Government returned to the international capital market through a debt exchange operation designed to improve the maturity profile and address amortizations scheduled for 2026. As a result, the Treasury will obtain $1B to finance the budget, extend payment terms by four years, and eliminate amortizations of $698Min 2026. Moody’s Ratings reacted by upgrading Ecuador’s credit rating to Caa1, two notches above the previous level. Within the framework of the program with the International Monetary Fund, debt falls to 53.8% of GDP in 2024, a reduction of close to 10 percentage points over five years. According to IMF projections, if fiscal consolidation is maintained as planned, debt will once again comply with the legal limit of 40% of GDP in 2031. Why does this new issuance show a lower spread versus U.S. Treasury bonds than previous issuances, but a higher rate? Why has the weight of public debt interest been reduced? Why will debt continue to fall in the coming years? How has the composition of the debt by type of creditor changed?
WA-2026-04: TARIFF SKIRMISH
The year begins with a tariff confrontation with Colombia. What are the prospects for the conflict with Colombia to be resolved soon, and what would be its effects if it persists over time? The government launches a debt reprofiling proposal to international financial markets. What does it expect to achieve with it? In Q4 2025, indicators suggest that the economy reactivated after the weak Q3 results. How did jobs increased? Foreign trade? How did oil perform? Which private exports showed the best performance? Did credit increase? How did inflation close? In this issue we update our review of economic performance based on indicators available as of mid-January. WA 2025#50 contains the review with indicators available as of mid-December.