Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2024-43: POWER OUTAGES DEPRESS Q4
It was expected that in the second half of the year, the disbursement of multilateral banks loans would quicken, stimulating the economy. However, the Amazon drought, which usually begins in October, started early in August, and the country is now experiencing power outages lasting up to eight hours a day, with at least five being working hours. Under these conditions, how is the economy performing, and what are the short-term prospects? Is Ecuador meeting the conditions of the IMF letter of intent? How is VAT collection going? What is happening with government payment delays? What are the expectations for oil prices? In which sectors did sales rebound in August? In this issue, we update our review of the economy's performance based on the indicators available as of mid-October. WA#40 contains the review with the indicators available at the end of September.
WA-2024-42: DEPOSITS RISE, RATES FALL
Liquidity in the economy is accelerating, driven by a strong trade surplus. However, this is due to a widespread decline in imports, a sign of a weakened economy. Deposits are increasing, and interest rates are falling. Credit remains sluggish. The U.S. benchmark interest rate was reduced in September, improving the international financial environment. Unfortunately, the country will not be able to fully benefit in the short term, as a temporary removal of the ISD exemption for private bank capital introduced by the Correa administration in the Energy Efficiency Law limits the capital entering the country. Can the increase in Ecuador’s economic liquidity translate into a sustainable recovery in credit and investment? What impact will the cuts in international interest rates have on the local financial environment? How is delinquency evolving? What about earnings? What are the main regulatory changes? What adjustments is the IMF requesting? What changes have been introduced to Fintech regulations? What’s new in payment methods?
WA-2024-41: SOCIAL DEMOCRACY REMAINS IN POWER
Daniel Noboa's National Development Plan aims to combine an active state that promotes social justice and high-quality public services with a dynamic market that generates employment and investment. To promote industrial and technological modernization to increase productivity and competitiveness in the global market. This approach is more flexible and multifaceted than the developmentalism of the Eclac school, which focused on industrialization and import substitution protectionism that Rafael Correa attempted to revive during his presidency. How does Noboa's Pluriannual Plan as a candidate differ from the National Development Plan also proposed by Noboa? Why can it be said that, with Noboa, social democracy remains in power? What are the goals for social justice in the National Development Plan? How does it intend to promote job creation? What strategies will be implemented to finance public investment? What is its stance on the oil and mining sectors? How will it attract investors?
WA-2024-40: INTEREST RATES RECEDE
The economy contracted in the second quarter, but the data for July and August suggests a recovery. What might be behind this improvement in the third quarter? What is happening with international interest rates, and what effect will they have on the economy? What can be expected from the financial sector? What are the expectations for oil prices? Which sectors experienced a sales rebound in July? How is employment faring? In this issue we update our review of the economy's performance based on indicators available as of the end of September. WA#36 contains the review with indicators available as of the end of August.
WA-2024-39: LIGHTS OUT ON GROWTH PROSPECTS
The BCE has just published new forecasts for 2024 and 2025 as well as the 5-year Macroeconomic Program. How is household consumption expected to perform? What about investment? What is the forecast for foreign trade, both imports and exports? How does the BCE evaluate the performance of different economic sectors? Trade? Manufacturing? Agriculture? Aquaculture? Financial services? How will the closure of ITT affect this? Are these forecasts realistic? What are their weakest assumptions? How will blackouts impact the economy? In this issue we review the 2024 and 2025 GDP previsions. We last did likewise for 2023-2024 in WA2023#38. The most recent issue dedicated to GDP performance in WA#30 with Q1.
WA-2024-38: NON PERFORMING LOANS, A CONCERN
Authorities are concerned about the increase in delinquent loans within the financial system. What measures are being taken to address the problem? Is there an imminent risk of liquidations? Which institutions and officials are responsible for managing this deterioration of the loan portfolio? What is the state of public sector banks? How is banking regulation adapting to technological developments? What measures have been implemented to combat money laundering? In this issue we focus on the public financial system as of August 2024. This analysis includes information on private banks, public-sector banks, and the popular economy. The last time we dealt with this topic was in WA 2023#37.