Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-03: PRIVATE INVESTMENT… BARELY TOLERATED
The Constitutional Court ruling of December 11, 2025, declared unconstitutional the concession of electric services to the private sector under the grounds of “public interest.” This further narrowed the window for private participation, ignoring the deep energy crisis caused by insufficient investment. For 2026, CENACE estimates a deficit of 792 MW, equivalent to 13% of demand. It expects the probability of an energy shortfall to increase in the following years, reaching 50% in the 2028–29 dry season. Meanwhile, the Electricity Master Plan estimates required investments of $17.3B over the next decade, funds the State does not have. Without a profound constitutional and legal change, closing the generation gap will be an uphill battle. Which power projects are underway? What are the five failed CELEC projects? Why is CELEC in crisis? What does the official push for self-generation mean? How has the rental of powerships prevented blackouts so far? How is interconnection with Peru progressing? Does Ecuador have cheap energy?
WA-2026-02: 294K MORE JOBS
The economic recovery in 2025 is reflected in improved employment indicators: a y-o-y increase as of November of 294K jobs (rural and urban). In Ecuador, the basic wage (SBU) is a political price disconnected from market functioning. A worker earning the SBU ($482/month) costs the employer $661/month. In a context where more than 53% of employment is informal, average labor income in Ecuador is 23% lower than the income earned by a worker receiving the SBU. There is a structural mismatch between wages and productivity: over the past five years, the SBU has grown faster than labor productivity. This gap pushes workers into informality—particularly youth, older adults, women, rural workers, and those with lower education levels. Can a high minimum wage coexist with a largely informal economy? Who truly benefits when wages are increased by decree, and who is excluded from the labor market? What could the artificial intelligence revolution mean for the labor market? What labor reforms is the government proposing to improve the labor regulatory environment?
WA-2026-01: 3½ YEARS MORE
The popular consultation is behind us, and the government's horizon is 2029, the next general elections. The forecasts are for modest growth, but the outlook can be improved with appropriate public policies. What will be the government's strategy regarding the economy? Is the electric energy problem solved? Will it take steps to facilitate investment in mining and oil? How are Donald Trump's tariffs for Ecuadoran exports? Will the country return to international financial markets in 2026? What structural reforms is the government committed to with the Monetary Fund?
WA-2025-50: STRENGTHENED EXTERNAL POSITION
Robust private exports, high oil prices, rising bank deposits, and IMF support contribute to the year ending with strong international monetary reserves—an important step toward Ecuador’s return to international financial markets. The latest data reiterate that the economy has had an excellent year, although there are signs that it may have begun to slow in Q4. Which private exports are leading growth? How are imports performing? What trend do interest rates show? What should be expected for oil prices? In this issue we update our review of economic performance based on indicators available as of mid-December. WA#47 contains the review with indicators available as of end-November.
WA-2025-49: RECURRING DRUG SHORTAGES
The public health system drug shortage repeats under every administration. Centralizing the procurement of medicines is positive because it allows economies of scale: buying large volumes at lower prices. It also facilitates corruption control by avoiding thousands of small, dispersed purchases. However, it does not solve the underlying problem, because it only addresses the first part: procurement. The main bottleneck lies in inventory management and distribution. The public health crisis is also evident in an increase in payment arrears to private health providers, who complement the public installed capacity. The private sector represents 64% of hospital supply, while the MSP and IESS together account for barely 26%, and others of various types the remaining 10%. The health system structurally depends on the private sector to meet healthcare demand, especially in specialized and high-complexity services. What concerns did the IMF raise about the public procurement process for medicines? How is the emergency procurement of medicines progressing? What is the Noboa government’s new strategy to face this crisis? What is the status of payment arrears to external health providers?
WA-2025-48: SURCHARGES IN EXCHANGE FOR OPENING
On November 14, President Trump removed tariff surcharges on a specific set of primary products originating from countries that agreed to enter new framework agreements. In exchange for the U.S. reversing the trade war only for this small group of products (that is, partially returning to the initial tariff situation prior to the trade war), these countries committed to opening their markets to U.S. goods. It is a concession obtained under an aggressive negotiation framework that Washington has been applying to force the importation of U.S. products. Which Ecuadoran products regain competitiveness to enter the U.S. market? How will the purchasing power of the dollar evolve? How are imports and exports performing? How are the main export products doing?