Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-15: TRADE LIBERALIZATION: ENGINE OF GROWTH
For small, open economies like Ecuador’s, trade liberalization constitutes one of the primary engines of economic growth, productivity, and welfare. A 1 percentage point increase in trade growth is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in GDP growth. Conversely, a 1-point increase in the average tariff reduces GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points, highlighting the contractive effect of trade barriers. Another of the most visible benefits of trade liberalization—and therefore the "liberalization dividend"—is the reduction in the relative prices of tradable goods. Opening markets raises household purchasing power and improves the competitiveness of firms that use imported inputs. Which sectors have benefited most from trade liberalization? How have export destinations and the export basket diversified? What will be the evolution of Ecuador’s tariffs under the new trade agreements?
WA-2026-14: IN PURSUIT OF COMPETITIVENESS
The most recent available data compiled by various global organizations show an Ecuador that is neither moving backward nor forward, and with respect to human development, in the latest measurement Colombia and Peru surpass us. The government reacts to this situation and hires the Harvard Growth Lab to design a strategy to improve competitiveness. The surprise is that Ecuadoran red tape, which we complain about so much, is less burdensome than that of most Latin American countries. How do the various organizations evaluate the recent political events? Have we advanced or fallen behind in the fight against corruption? Regarding peace in the country, are we better or worse than Colombia and Mexico? How are economic complexity, competitiveness, and innovation evolving? Why does the Heritage Foundation consider that we have a not-very-free economy? How is Ecuador’s foreign trade perceived?
WA-2026-13: AN EXPANDING MARKET
The Ecuadoran securities market showed solid growth of 15.7% in 2025, driven mainly by the public sector, whose issuances increased 23.3%, while financing to the private sector grew 6.5%. The sustained increase in liquidity in the economy is having a direct effect on the securities market dynamism. In an environment where monetary aggregates are growing strongly and interest rates on deposits are declining, investors seek higher returns, shifting toward more profitable and longer-term financial instruments. What does 2026 look like in the securities market? Which securities offer the best returns? What are the priority reforms to the securities market mentioned in the IMF’s most recent report? What will be the benefits of Panama no longer being considered a tax haven? Where are the pension funds?
WA-2026-12: AN ART GOOD FOR 120 DAYS
The economy is performing well, according to the most recent indicators. There is a significant 7% yoy increase in adequate employment; in February VAT collection grows 19% yoy; in January non-oil exports rise 8.6% despite the drop in cacao prices; consumer imports grow 4%. All points to more money in households’ pockets. However, in March worrying developments emerge: a curfew in four provinces; nationwide rains that led to a National Emergency declaration; energy demand exceeding system capacity, forcing an Energy Deficit Alert; the fuel price increase expected on April 12 due to the Iran war; and tariff surcharges from Colombia and the U.S. Which activities are impacted by the curfew? How much will oil prices rise due to the Iran war? Why does the government sign an agreement with the U.S. if another must be negotiated in August? When will tariffs with Colombia end? In this issue we update our review of economic performance based on the indicators available at mid-March. WA 2026#08 contains the review with the indicators available in late February.
WA-2026-11: INSURERS: A VERY GOOD YEAR
2025 was a very violent year, with significant climate-related problems. Nevertheless, insurers kept damages under control, retained more risk by reinsuring less, and their ROE was excellent. The Superintendency of Companies opened the insurance sector to virtual services, providing benefits to users. Additionally, it mandated that insurers invest more in liquid securities, which boosted the securities market. Which lines of business were the most dynamic? Which performed the worst? In which lines did the cost of claims increase? What is the financial position of each insurance company? What are their risk ratings? In which line does each specialize? How have life insurers performed? What is the balance-sheet situation of the prepaid health companies? What are the 2026 perspectives? In this issue we review the insurance business, focusing on balance sheets and premium income. The financial statements of the 27 insurers operating in the country as of December 31, 2025, are analyzed. For 2024 this information appeared in WA 2025#11. WA 2025#22 addressed the merger of Ecuatoriano-Suiza and Equinoccial.
WA-2026-10: IMPORTS FROM COLOMBIA: WHAT LIES AHEAD?
The 50% increase in Colombian tariffs has officially taken effect, a retaliatory measure following Ecuador’s own decision to raise its security rate to 50%. Ecuadoran import guilds have denounced the move, warning of the direct harm to consumers caused by rising prices. Within the industrial sector, the reaction is more nuanced: while some believe critical inputs will become drastically more expensive, others argue they can replace international supply with their own domestic production. This Friday the 13th, the ART Agreement (Agreement on Reciprocal Trade) with the U.S. will be signed. It brings a wide range of commitments for Ecuador, and on the commercial front, it grants the U.S. greater access to the national grain market, specifically for wheat and corn. What can be expected regarding Colombian imports? Which products will continue to be imported despite the high costs, and which are likely to be replaced by domestic goods? What was President Noboa’s objective at the "Shield of the Americas" Summit? Furthermore, what are the latest changes regarding courier imports?