Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-25: FUSARIUM AND EL NIÑO: EXTRAORDINARY CHALLENGES
Formidable challenges face the banana sector in 2026: at the end of 2025, Fusarium TR4 was detected in a banana plantation in El Oro Province; the fungus has caused major damage to Peruvian banana plantations in the Piura region. In addition, an exceptionally strong El Niño event is being forecast, bringing back memories of the 1997-98 event. However, national experts clarify that an El Niño event at the global level is one thing and its effects on Ecuador's coast are another. National experts consider there to be a high probability that Ecuador will experience a moderate El Niño similar to that of 2015-2016. On the positive side, Ecuador's competitor countries face greater difficulties: phytosanitary challenges in Asia and climatic challenges in the Caribbean, which could help Ecuador sell its production at favorable prices. What would be the effects of Fusarium on banana plantations? What solution is being sought? What would be the impact of El Niño? How is the banana price evolving? How did exports perform in 2025 and how are they progressing in 2026? Which are the leading exporters? The largest markets? Will 2026 be a good or a bad year for bananas?
WA-2026-24: MINING CONTRACTS TO BE RENEGOTIATED
Ecuador is moving away from international mining best practices. The 2025 Fraser Institute Mining Policy Perception Index ranked Ecuador #59 out of 68 jurisdictions. In just 3 years, Ecuador has gone from being one of the world's great mining promises to a jurisdiction perceived as increasingly conflictive and risky. The government announced its intention to renegotiate mining contracts and cited the Cascabel contract as an example, claiming it contains significant imbalances. This contract was signed just 2 years ago during President Noboa's administration. The mining industry expressed concern over legal certainty due to provisions establishing that contracts are merely a reference and may be modified automatically or even retroactively. What are the 5 regulatory changes that caused the deterioration in investors' perception of Ecuador's mining environment? What positive signals has the government given to this sector? Why are Western companies ceding their position to Chinese firms in Ecuador? What impact could the recent rare earths agreement signed with the U.S. have? What is the current state of mining in numbers? What progress has been made on the main mining projects?
WA-2026-23: INTEREST RATES: WILL THEY CONTINUE FALLING?
Interest rates have continued declining since mid-2024 thanks to greater liquidity in the economy driven by exports, remittances, and external financing. However, the decline has lost momentum since late 2025. Going forward, higher imported inflation, a potentially more restrictive international environment, and the slowdown in liquidity growth will limit further declines. In addition, while the corporate credit rate still has room to continue falling, rate ceilings in segments such as consumer credit and SMEs are beginning to restrict credit supply, reinforcing the need to advance reforms to the interest rate ceiling framework promoted by the IMF and the Government. What measures have been adopted to strengthen the banking sector? What reforms are on the way? What does the new bank reserve requirement, which raises the percentage of investment in government securities from 20% to 45%, mean for the financial system? How are credit and deposits evolving? What is the situation of the main banking indicators?
WA-2026-22: REGIONAL RECORD IN TAX BURDEN
In 2024, Ecuador recorded the highest tax burden among South American countries on the Pacific coast, equivalent to 21.7% of GDP, above Chile (20.5%), Colombia (19.9%) and Peru (16.3%). In addition, since only part of the population and economic activity operates formally, the tax burden ultimately becomes concentrated on a relatively small group of taxpayers. In 2025, net tax collection rose 5.5% to a total of $18.1B. VAT increased the most due to greater economic dynamism. The SRI announced the implementation of strong controls over “hidden gains from share sales” to “close tax non-compliance gaps.” Penalties increased 68.5% due to greater oversight and sanctions. Ecuador significantly missed its fiscal targets in the fifth review of the IMF EFF agreement. As an immediate response, the government adopted new tax measures to offset the fiscal shortfall. What measures did the SRI adopt? What additional tax reforms are contemplated under the IMF program? Who were the largest taxpayers in 2025? What factors explained the performance of the main tax collection items?
WA-2026-21 : GROWTH RETURNS TO 2+%
In his State of the Nation address, the president portrayed an economy in growth accompanied by major improvements in social indicators. He listed advances in public services and infrastructure projects, but avoided addressing controversial issues, particularly energy, or dangerous risks such as an El Niño phenomenon considered potentially the strongest in 150 years. The message that the economy is recovering is contradicted by a leading indicator from the Central Bank estimating that the economy grew 2.3% in 1Q. How is the external sector performing: Does private export growth continue? Are monetary reserves increasing? Are interest rates rising or falling? What is the trend in the labor market? Is there liquidity in public finances or not? Is the government paying suppliers? Why is inflation accelerating? In this issue we update our review of the economy’s performance based on the indicators available as of mid-May. WA#17 contains the review with the indicators available as of mid-April.
WA-2026-20: EXPORTS LOSE MOMENTUM
Total exports rose by just 1.0% yoy in Q1 2026. The strongest expansion came from mining (now the country’s third-largest export product). Shrimp and bananas also posted growth. By contrast, the largest declines came from cacao and oil. Donald Trump’s tariff offensive is facing new legal constraints. The Trump administration is already preparing the ground to replace the generalized surcharges still in force with others targeting products or sectors. The investigations involving Ecuador relate to allegations of dumping and forced labor. The framework agreement negotiated with the U.S. has still not entered into force, and Ecuadoran authorities state that it is not final and that further negotiations remain possible. What could be the future of the trade agreement with the U.S.? What commitments is Ecuador undertaking? What is President Noboa seeking with his visit to China? Has the trade war with Colombia come to an end? What was the impact of the conflict with Colombia in terms of the decline in exports and imports? What other trade agreements are about to enter into force? Which are still in the negotiation or exploration phase? How are imports performing?