Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2025-17: OFFICIALS ARE OPTIMISTIC
The Central Bank reveals that GDP fell by -2.0% in 2024, but offers an optimistic outlook for 2025, with growth projected at 2.8%. The Central Bank estimates that all economic activities will perform better in 2025. How much did the late-2024 power rationing affect the economy? What is expected for investment in 2025? Household consumption? Which sectors are expected to grow the most? How is the shifting international environment affecting the outlook? The Central Bank also discloses the economic performance by province and county in 2023. Which province recorded the highest growth that year? The lowest? Which province had the highest agricultural value added in 2023? Manufacturing? Construction? Financial? Real estate? In this issue we review GDP growth in 2024, as well as the new estimate for 2025. We did the same exercise for 2024 in WA 2024#15. The most recent issue dedicated to GDP performance is WA2024#39 covering 2024Q2 performance.
WA-2025-16: RESOUNDING VICTORY
Daniel Noboa’s resounding runoff victory took both supporters and opponents by surprise. He Begins his four-year term—May 24 being merely a formality—with undeniable legitimacy, no matter how much Correa and his backers Maduro, Sheinbaum, and Petro may try to deny it. How did the vote change compared to the first round? What explains such a phenomenal outcome? Where did Noboa achieve his biggest win? Who captured Iza’s votes? What impact has the defeat had on Revolución Ciudadana? What can be expected from the Assembly? What would a Constituent Assembly look like? What risks would it entail? What other path is there to reform the Constitution? In this issue, we review Daniel Noboa’s victory in the runoff election and the political scenario he now faces. In WA#09 we reviewed the first-round results. The first challenges of his administration following the 2023 victory were discussed in WA 2023#42.
WA-2025-15: AMPLE CREDIT AVAILABILITY
President Noboa maintains that significant investment decisions are on hold pending the results of the Sunday 13 elections. He states that there is ample availability in the banking sector to meet a sharp increase in credit demand. The Superintendency of Banks shut down Amibank, a small bank, and explained that it is an isolated case, and that the banking system remains solvent. What role does the President assign to Banco del Pacífico in his credit policy? Why was Amibank closed? What measures have the authorities taken to strengthen the banking system? How did private bank credit grow, by type of credit? What is the non-performing loan portfolio of the banking sector? Has it been profitable? In Q1, which banks grew the most, which were the most profitable, and which showed the strongest performance? In this issue we focus on private banks as of March 31 with stress on the recent measures to strengthen bank solvency. In WA#06 we addressed the situation at end-2024. The financial statements as of March 2024 were analyzed in WA 2024 #16.
WA-2025-14: FULL THROTTLE
Once the first round results became known, President Noboa announced a push for economic reactivation through household demand, extending a series of temporary subsidies while also creating new ones. Household demand had already been recovering since January, and the stimulus will further boost it. At the same time, President Trump erected a tariff wall to support the resurgence of U.S. industrial power, bringing an end to 80 years of global trade liberalization. Does Noboa’s stimulus plan benefit durable and non-durable goods equally? How does the stimulus affect banking liquidity? Interest rates? How are exports performing? What impact will the new U.S. tariff have on Ecuador? What can be expected for banana, shrimp, and cacaa sales? Will the dollar appreciate or depreciate? In this issue we review the performance of the economy based on indicators available in late March. WA#10 contains the revision with indicators available in early March.
WA-2025-13: A DETERIORATED IMAGE
Organizations that monitor global economic, political, and social trends report in their assessments the deterioration of security in Ecuador, incorporating it into their corruption, rule of law, impunity, and other indices. This year, compared to the previous one, do these organizations see greater strength or weakness in the rule of law? More or less respect for human rights? Higher or lower corruption? Do they perceive environmental deterioration? Are there advances in human development? How are economic complexity, competitiveness, and innovation evolving? How do they perceive Ecuador’s foreign trade? Is there greater or lesser economic freedom? In this issue, we build a coherent view of how the international community rates Ecuador as a player in global markets. In this issue we build a coherent vision of how the international community rates Ecuador as a player in international markets. The last time we dealt with the subject was in WA 2024 #08, where we reviewed the main international rankings that include Ecuador.
WA-2025-12: THE STATE, DOMINANT PLAYER
The Ecuadoran securities market posted solid growth of 18.3% in 2024, driven mainly by the State, whose issuances increased by 31.3%, while business financing lagged behind with a mere 5.7% growth. The State crowds out business. Ecuador remains isolated from the two Latin American securities exchange integration initiatives, reducing the country’s competitiveness and restricting financing and growth opportunities for its businesses. What impact will the State’s increasing participation in the securities market have in 2025? What are the priority reforms needed to improve regional integration of Ecuador’s market and attract more foreign investors? Which securities performed best in 2024?