Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
The census found one million less inhabitants than projected. Where is the population growing and where is it decreasing? How does it affect the calculation of the basic salary? The distribution of fiscal revenues? Per capita GDP? The future of the economy? How does the rise in international interest rates impact the national economy? On bank credit? The slowdown of the Chinese economy on imports and exports? Why is inflation accelerating? What has happened to the labor market in the last month? To sales? How high can the price of oil rise? What happens with oil output? In this issue we update our review of the current performance of the economy based on indicators available as September closes. The review based on indicators at the closing of August is carried out in WA#35.
BCE just put out its 5-year Macroeconomic Programming, and the estimates are quite sobering. There is the impact of the shutting down of ITT and El Niño. How would the effect of the loss of this business spread over the next five years? What would high interest rates mean for consumption and investment? How does BCE see the trend both of imports and exports? This BCE outlook cannot consider any major policy shift, as a new government would take over at the end of 2023. What would the major changes and outlook be if Gonzalez is elected? If Noboa is president? How does BCE gauge the performance of the different business sectors? Commerce? Manufacturing? Agriculture? Aquaculture? Financial services?
The current strategy for public-sector banks is to strengthen them as second-tier banks and democratize credit through micro, small and medium-sized enterprises financing for. What does this mean for the business sector? What is the progress of the popular initiative bill that would force the government to hand over to IESS/Biess Banco del Pacífico in dation in payment? What measures are public-sector banks preparing to face the El Niño weather phenomenon? Why do public-sector banks not manage to recover all the money they lend? What new 'easy credit' programs have been inaugurated this year? What happened to the debt forgiveness agreed after the violent Conaie protests of June 2022? What are the new requests for debt easing? Which public-sector banks have the highest delinquency rates in the entire financial system? What about the newly merged public bank: Banco de Fomento Económico? What is the disadvantage of Biess prioritizing the delivery of short-term loans?
The agreement with the IMF was in force between 2019 and 2022. With much effort, and not without setbacks, the fiscal deficit was significantly reduced. But this result has proven to be very fragile. "The house" is not yet in order as the government boasted. Accumulated to August 2023, the deficit rebounded sharply to -2.3% of GDP. The achievements of the IMF program are being eroded by a combination of sharp increases in expenditures and lower revenues. The 2023 budget deficit was codified at 2.4% of GDP. The government ratifies this goal. But as things go, several observers agree that this estimate would fall short and that the new estimate would be between 3 and 4% of GDP. The fiscal situation will be more pressing in a few months if the closing of the 4th oil block, the Yasuní-ITT, takes place. Fiscal corrections are inevitable. What are the Treasury's options to pass to the citizens the bill for these imbalances? What is the Executive looking for with the new decree-law for the Balance of Public Finances? What changes can business expect in relation to tax treatment? The financing need for 2023 is $9.6B. Who will finance the Treasury?
The result of the presidential elections was a pleasant surprise for financial markets, which feared an outright González victory or a runoff with Yaku Perez. When Noboa emerged as the rival of González, country risk went down. However, it has started to climb again, on concerns of a deterioration of mid-term economic perspectives given the vote to shut down the only oil block with untapped reserves. How is the economy performing in the third quarter? In what state are public finances? What are the perspectives of the credit market? What are the most pressing issues facing the incoming administration? What are credit agencies and international banks saying about Ecuador´s outlook?
Daniel Noboa was a surprise. After lagging in all polls, he managed to rebound to second place at the midnight hour and qualify for the run-off. The hypothesis is that his success was due to the support of the young electorate. He presented himself as an outsider, spoused identity policies, and distanced himself from traditional politicians. For Correismo, this generational replacement is the biggest challenge, given a youthful electorate, skeptical of the proposal to return to the "glorious past" when Rafael Correa was president and of his revenge agenda against those who he perceives as traitors. Correa's hand-picked candidate, Luisa González, favors an interventionist State. Noboa, on the other hand, is for a business environment that would foster investment and economic growth. His main concern is boosting competitiveness and, in parallel, expanding social spending forcefully. What are the main proposals of these candidates?