Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-18: IMF: NONCOMPLIANCE AND NEW TARGETS
In April 2026, the IMF concluded the fifth review of the agreement with Ecuador, confirming a significant breach of the 2025 fiscal targets. The expected adjustment was 1.3% of GDP, but only 0.3% was achieved, reflecting major deviations in both revenue and spending. The outcome does not eliminate the adjustment: it reshapes it and pushes it forward. The consolidation target of 6.6% of GDP between 2024 and 2028 is maintained, but with a new trajectory: a significantly heavier burden from 2026 onward. In addition, the nature of the adjustment changes. The new program reduces the weight of revenue increases and increases reliance on expenditure containment (which does not imply a reduction in nominal terms), introducing higher execution risks. In practice, the adjustment becomes more demanding in political and operational terms, as it focuses on items that are harder to correct. Is there fiscal space to increase public investment? What structural reforms have been committed? What additional tax changes could be implemented? How will fuel subsidies evolve?
WA-2026-17: DNA: GOOD Q1
President Noboa has exhibited very positive economic data on economic performance in Q1. The Budget deficit in the quarter in much smaller than in the Q1 2025. Yet the Central Bank estimates that in February the economy grew 2.3%, which would constitute a slowdown. A threat to the economy this year comes from rising fuel and petrochemical prices, including fertilizers, polymers, and solvents, due to damage to the oil industry not only in Persian Gulf countries, dominantly Iran. How real is the Q1 economic dynamism announced by the president? What is the IMF warning to Ecuador during last week’s IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington? How does the deterioration of petrochemical production in the Persian Gulf affect Ecuador? What will happen with the 100% tariff on Colombia depending on election results? In this issue we update our review of economic performance based on indicators available by mid-April. WA#12 contains the review with indicators available by mid-March.
WA-2026-16: A MORE AMBITIOUS FORECAST
The Central Bank estimates that the economy would grow 2.5% in 2026, a substantial improvement over the forecast from six months ago, which stood at 1.8%. This is partly due to the strong and unexpected growth of private exports in 2025 and the rebound of the economy in Q4 2025, driven by the recovery in oil plus increased agricultural production. For 2026, the development of mining projects, the stabilization of oil production, and the boosting of construction are expected. The Central Bank also provides a forecast of supply and demand for the rest of the decade. Does the Central Bank foresee a more prosperous future, or will the slow growth we have experienced continue? How would household consumption evolve through 2029? Will export expansion continue? What outcomes are expected from housing finance programs? Will the food industry or the non-food industry perform better? How will services perform? In this issue, we review the new GDP growth forecast for 2026, as well as the performance in 2025. We conducted the same exercise for the previous year in WA 2025#17. In WA2025#39, we reviewed the first forecast for 2026.
WA-2026-15: TRADE LIBERALIZATION: ENGINE OF GROWTH
For small, open economies like Ecuador’s, trade liberalization constitutes one of the primary engines of economic growth, productivity, and welfare. A 1 percentage point increase in trade growth is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in GDP growth. Conversely, a 1-point increase in the average tariff reduces GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points, highlighting the contractive effect of trade barriers. Another of the most visible benefits of trade liberalization—and therefore the "liberalization dividend"—is the reduction in the relative prices of tradable goods. Opening markets raises household purchasing power and improves the competitiveness of firms that use imported inputs. Which sectors have benefited most from trade liberalization? How have export destinations and the export basket diversified? What will be the evolution of Ecuador’s tariffs under the new trade agreements?
WA-2026-14: IN PURSUIT OF COMPETITIVENESS
The most recent available data compiled by various global organizations show an Ecuador that is neither moving backward nor forward, and with respect to human development, in the latest measurement Colombia and Peru surpass us. The government reacts to this situation and hires the Harvard Growth Lab to design a strategy to improve competitiveness. The surprise is that Ecuadoran red tape, which we complain about so much, is less burdensome than that of most Latin American countries. How do the various organizations evaluate the recent political events? Have we advanced or fallen behind in the fight against corruption? Regarding peace in the country, are we better or worse than Colombia and Mexico? How are economic complexity, competitiveness, and innovation evolving? Why does the Heritage Foundation consider that we have a not-very-free economy? How is Ecuador’s foreign trade perceived?
WA-2026-13: AN EXPANDING MARKET
The Ecuadoran securities market showed solid growth of 15.7% in 2025, driven mainly by the public sector, whose issuances increased 23.3%, while financing to the private sector grew 6.5%. The sustained increase in liquidity in the economy is having a direct effect on the securities market dynamism. In an environment where monetary aggregates are growing strongly and interest rates on deposits are declining, investors seek higher returns, shifting toward more profitable and longer-term financial instruments. What does 2026 look like in the securities market? Which securities offer the best returns? What are the priority reforms to the securities market mentioned in the IMF’s most recent report? What will be the benefits of Panama no longer being considered a tax haven? Where are the pension funds?